It does not address in detail the potential causes or motivations behind future conflicts, nor does it attempt to forecast every potential development in warfare.īy 2040, a range of potentially revolutionary technologies and novel uses could change the character of how war is waged. Scope Note: This assessment focuses primarily on changes in the ways in which wars are likely to be waged and battles are fought during the next two decades, including technologies, doctrines, and actors. The proliferation and diffusion of these systems over time will make more assets vulnerable, heighten the risk of escalation, and make combat potentially more deadly, though not necessarily more decisive. The combination of improved sensors, automation, and artificial intelligence (AI) with hypersonics and other advanced technologies will produce more accurate, better connected, faster, longer range, and more destructive weapons, primarily available to the most advanced militaries but some within reach of smaller state and non-state actors. However, the analysis does not reflect official US Government policy, the breadth of intelligence sources, or the full range of perspectives within the US Intelligence Community.ĭuring the next two decades, military conflict most likely will be driven by the same factors that have historically prompted wars-ranging from resource protection, economic disparities, and ideological differences to the pursuit of power and influence-but the ways in which war is waged will change as new technologies, applications, and doctrines emerge and as additional actors gain access to these capabilities.
This paper was produced by the National Intelligence Council’s Strategic Futures Group in consultation with outside experts and Intelligence Community analysts to help inform the integrated Global Trends product, which published in March 2021.
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